DropBox: $10BB?

I don’t usually comment on other companies (except if they draw my ire like the buffoons at Sony, the troglodytes at Thrifty, or the microcephalants at eBay and PayPal, but this article is just goofy:

http://www.businessinsider.com/why-dropbox-is-easily-worth-5-billion-2011-8#ixzz1VxqmR91H

1) transfer costs for the user to move from one cloud storage to another – especially one like DropBox – is nil.  I can let things sync overnight or whenever I please.  Especially easy with things like SkyDrive where I just tell Mesh to sync my DB folder and I’m done.

2) Their COGS will always go DOWN?  Ummm..because they use AWS and that pricing will always go down?  What?  Equating AWS pricing models with Moore’s Law does not compute.

3) Their rev will go up because…it’s a pain to transfer between cloud services?  Well, it’s not, so the lauded subscription mojo is a fallacy.

I’ve nothing against DB at all – I used them but frankly 2GB wasn’t enough free storage.  WL SkyDrive/Mesh – with 25gb free – is much better for me.

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